A Deep Learning Framework for Predicting Patient Decannulation on Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Devices: Development and Model Analysis Study (Preprint)

Abstract

Venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV-ECMO) is a therapy for patients with refractory respiratory failure. The decision to decannulate someone from extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) often involves weaning trials and clinical intuition. To date, there are limited prognostication metrics to guide clinical decision–making to determine which patients will be successfully weaned and decannulated.

This study aims to assist clinicians with the decision to decannulate a patient from ECMO, using Continuous Evaluation of VV-ECMO Outcomes (CEVVO), a deep learning–based model for predicting success of decannulation in patients supported on VV-ECMO. The running metric may be applied daily to categorize patients into high-risk and low-risk groups. Using these data, providers may consider initiating a weaning trial based on their expertise and CEVVO.

Data were collected from 118 patients supported with VV-ECMO at the Columbia University Irving Medical Center. Using a long short-term memory–based network, CEVVO is the first model capable of integrating discrete clinical information with continuous data collected from an ECMO device. A total of 12 sets of 5-fold cross validations were conducted to assess the performance, which was measured using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and average precision (AP). To translate the predicted values into a clinically useful metric, the model results were calibrated and stratified into risk groups, ranging from 0 (high risk) to 3 (low risk). To further investigate the performance edge of CEVVO, 2 synthetic data sets were generated using Gaussian process regression. The first data set preserved the long-term dependency of the patient data set, whereas the second did not.

CEVVO demonstrated consistently superior classification performance compared with contemporary models (<i>P</i>&lt;.001 and <i>P</i>=.04 compared with the next highest AUROC and AP). Although the model’s patient-by-patient predictive power may be too low to be integrated into a clinical setting (AUROC 95% CI 0.6822-0.7055; AP 95% CI 0.8515-0.8682), the patient risk classification system displayed greater potential. When measured at 72 hours, the high-risk group had a successful decannulation rate of 58% (7/12), whereas the low-risk group had a successful decannulation rate of 92% (11/12; <i>P</i>=.04). When measured at 96 hours, the high- and low-risk groups had a successful decannulation rate of 54% (6/11) and 100% (9/9), respectively (<i>P</i>=.01). We hypothesized that the improved performance of CEVVO was owing to its ability to efficiently capture transient temporal patterns. Indeed, CEVVO exhibited improved performance on synthetic data with inherent temporal dependencies (<i>P</i>&lt;.001) compared with logistic regression and a dense neural network.

The ability to interpret and integrate large data sets is paramount for creating accurate models capable of assisting clinicians in risk stratifying patients supported on VV-ECMO. Our framework may guide future incorporation of CEVVO into more comprehensive intensive care monitoring systems.