An Environmental Uncertainty Perception Framework for Misinformation Detection and Spread Prediction in the COVID-19 Pandemic: Artificial Intelligence Approach

Abstract

Background Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, misinformation on social media has posed significant threats to public health. Detecting and predicting the spread of misinformation are crucial for mitigating its adverse effects. However, prevailing frameworks for these tasks have predominantly focused on post-level signals of misinformation, neglecting features of the broader information environment where misinformation originates and proliferates. Objective This study aims to create a novel framework that integrates the uncertainty of the information environment into misinformation features, with the goal of enhancing the model’s accuracy in tasks such as misinformation detection and predicting the scale of dissemination. The objective is to provide better support for online governance efforts during health crises. Methods In this study, we embraced uncertainty features within the information environment and introduced a novel Environmental Uncertainty Perception (EUP) framework for the detection of misinformation and the prediction of its spread on social media. The framework encompasses uncertainty at 4 scales of the information environment: physical environment, macro-media environment, micro-communicative environment, and message framing. We assessed the effectiveness of the EUP using real-world COVID-19 misinformation data sets. Results The experimental results demonstrated that the EUP alone achieved notably good performance, with detection accuracy at 0.753 and prediction accuracy at 0.71. These results were comparable to state-of-the-art baseline models such as bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM; detection accuracy 0.733 and prediction accuracy 0.707) and bidirectional encoder representations from transformers (BERT; detection accuracy 0.755 and prediction accuracy 0.728). Additionally, when the baseline models collaborated with the EUP, they exhibited improved accuracy by an average of 1.98% for the misinformation detection and 2.4% for spread-prediction tasks. On unbalanced data sets, the EUP yielded relative improvements of 21.5% and 5.7% in macro-F1-score and area under the curve, respectively. Conclusions This study makes a significant contribution to the literature by recognizing uncertainty features within information environments as a crucial factor for improving misinformation detection and spread-prediction algorithms during the pandemic. The research elaborates on the complexities of uncertain information environments for misinformation across 4 distinct scales, including the physical environment, macro-media environment, micro-communicative environment, and message framing. The findings underscore the effectiveness of incorporating uncertainty into misinformation detection and spread prediction, providing an interdisciplinary and easily implementable framework for the field.