Gaining Insights Into the Estimation of the Circadian Rhythms of Social Activity in Older Adults From Their Telephone Call Activity With Statistical Learning: Observational Study

Abstract

Background Understanding the social mechanisms of the circadian rhythms of activity represents a major issue in better managing the mechanisms of age-related diseases occurring over time in the elderly population. The automated analysis of call detail records (CDRs) provided by modern phone technologies can help meet such an objective. At this stage, however, whether and how the circadian rhythms of telephone call activity can be automatically and properly modeled in the elderly population remains to be established. Objective Our goal for this study is to address whether and how the circadian rhythms of social activity observed through telephone calls could be automatically modeled in older adults. Methods We analyzed a 12-month data set of outgoing telephone CDRs of 26 adults older than 65 years of age. We designed a statistical learning modeling approach adapted for exploratory analysis. First, Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) were calculated to automatically model each participant’s circadian rhythm of telephone call activity. Second, k-means clustering was used for grouping participants into distinct groups depending on the characteristics of their personal GMMs. Results The results showed the existence of specific structures of telephone call activity in the daily social activity of older adults. At the individual level, GMMs allowed the identification of personal habits, such as morningness-eveningness for making calls. At the population level, k-means clustering allowed the structuring of these individual habits into specific morningness or eveningness clusters. Conclusions These findings support the potential of phone technologies and statistical learning approaches to automatically provide personalized and precise information on the social rhythms of telephone call activity of older individuals. Futures studies could integrate such digital insights with other sources of data to complete assessments of the circadian rhythms of activity in elderly populations.