Predictive Modeling of Hypertension-Related Postpartum Readmission: Retrospective Cohort Analysis

Abstract

Background Hypertension is the most common reason for postpartum hospital readmission. Better prediction of postpartum readmission will improve the health care of patients. These models will allow better use of resources and decrease health care costs. Objective This study aimed to evaluate clinical predictors of postpartum readmission for hypertension using a novel machine learning (ML) model that can effectively predict readmissions and balance treatment costs. We examined whether blood pressure and other measures during labor, not just postpartum measures, would be important predictors of readmission. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study from the PeriData website data set from a single midwestern academic center of all women who delivered from 2009 to 2018. This study consists of 2 data sets; 1 spanning the years 2009-2015 and the other spanning the years 2016-2018. A total of 47 clinical and demographic variables were collected including blood pressure measurements during labor and post partum, laboratory values, and medication administration. Hospital readmissions were verified by patient chart review. In total, 32,645 were considered in the study. For our analysis, we trained several cost-sensitive ML models to predict the primary outcome of hypertension-related postpartum readmission within 42 days post partum. Models were evaluated using cross-validation and on independent data sets (models trained on data from 2009 to 2015 were validated on the data from 2016 to 2018). To assess clinical viability, a cost analysis of the models was performed to see how their recommendations could affect treatment costs. Results Of the 32,645 patients included in the study, 170 were readmitted due to a hypertension-related diagnosis. A cost-sensitive random forest method was found to be the most effective with a balanced accuracy of 76.61% for predicting readmission. Using a feature importance and area under the curve analysis, the most important variables for predicting readmission were blood pressures in labor and 24-48 hours post partum increasing the area under the curve of the model from 0.69 (SD 0.06) to 0.81 (SD 0.06), (P=.05). Cost analysis showed that the resulting model could have reduced associated readmission costs by US $6000 against comparable models with similar F1-score and balanced accuracy. The most effective model was then implemented as a risk calculator that is publicly available. The code for this calculator and the model is also publicly available at a GitHub repository. Conclusions Blood pressure measurements during labor through 48 hours post partum can be combined with other variables to predict women at risk for postpartum readmission. Using ML techniques in conjunction with these data have the potential to improve health outcomes and reduce associated costs. The use of the calculator can greatly assist clinicians in providing care to patients and improve medical decision-making.