Speculation in Food and Commodities - A Research Report: A Critical Discussion of the Econometric Research Method and an Alternative Analysis

Abstract

This paper is a report of the research on the effect of speculation on commodities and food since deregulation. Econometrics can be applied to show how speculation influences price and vice versa. However, there is no clear empirical picture. In this paper, we examine the reasons for the lack of empirical clarity and arrive at a critical discussion of the econometric research approach. As an alternative approach, we use scientific logic on the basis of statistical data and other verifiable facts as method of investigation. This method allows us to derive the influence of speculation on spot prices. We find a negative impact of speculation why regulation is necessary.