Modeling of country energy supply by structure of product energy balance data in the format of the international energy agency

Abstract

The possibilities of construction of models of production type investigated according to L.V. Kantorovich using the expanded nomenclature of product energy balance, as well as indicators of energy balances of the IEA for Ukraine, which allowed to determine mutually agreed and balanced volumes for production and supply of the energy sources using the minimum amount of open-source information regulated by the current legislation of a country. Creating the structure of the aforementioned models in accordance with the structure of the system of indicators mentioned balances makes the possibility for assessing the set of input and output indicators of these reporting statistical documents for completeness and consistency, particularly with the aim to identify incorrectly taken into counted, unaccounted, lost or stolen amounts of fuel and energy resources. With this in mind, the following work focuses on formulating the basic requirements for energy supply models for purposes of their application, developing a methodological approach to building a structure, and technological coefficients calculation (input and output) of the economic-mathematical model of production type by the nomenclature of supply directions, transformation and final consumption regulated by the product energy balance of Ukraine, and also on the application of this approach to the development of a number of energy supply models of different aggregation levels, designed to solve problems of forecasting the structure and amounts supply of energy sources, and the research of their appropriate variants, analyze the quality of statistic energetic balances, and detection the volumes of unaccounted energy resource consumption. Keywords: energy supply, product energy balance, production type model