Synphytoindication evaluation of habitats of plant species listed in the Red Data Book of Ukraine and habitat risk assessment under the impact of climate change

Abstract

Ecological assessment of plant habitats in the territory of the upper basin of the Prut River was carried out using synphytoindication analysis of 2386 vegetation plots. This provided an opportunity to supplement the assessment of habitat conditions for 84 species of vascular plants listed in the Red Data Book of Ukraine. The conducted phytoindication assessment allowed to update and clarify information on the ranges of ecological amplitude for 55 species from the Red Data Book of Ukraine as well as to calculate indicators values for Crepis jacquinii for the first time. Based on the results of phytoindication assessment made for 49 species, the maximum ecological values (for 37 species) and minimum ecological values (for 38 species) were specified. Complete information on 12 environmental factors was obtained for habitats of 55 species, or 9% of species of vascular plants in the Red Data Book of Ukraine. A degree of possible threat to plant habitats is calculated, i.e. their reduction and loss due to increase in average annual temperature by 1, 2 and 3 °C. With the increase in temperature by 3 °C, the risk of habitat loss can reach 30% and only 3.5% of habitats remain out of danger, which indicates the catastrophic state of the studied habitats. At the same time, rising temperature can significantly affect the edaphic properties of the soil, in particular, the acidity regime; such indirect climate effects can be more significant for ecosystems than the direct ones. The obtained data indicate the risk of loss of species habitats, and subsequent result depends on further realization of species potential. Three options of the realization are possible: reduction and extinction, migration to other areas or landscape elements, and enhancing adaptive capacity of species. Results of ecological assessment of plant species and forecasting possible changes in their habitats based on synphytoindication methodology demonstrated the effectiveness and wide range of use of this methodology.