Practical methodology of assessing probability of establishment of adventive plant pests

Abstract

Aim. To develop practical methodology of assessing the probability of establishment of adventive pests out- side of their native range of distribution, using specialized software. Methods. International standards for pest risk analysis ISPM No. 2, ISPM No. 11, ISPM No. 21, РМ 5/1(1), РМ 5/2(2), РМ 5/3(5), РМ 5/5(1) and Agro Atlas (Afonin et al., 2008), MapInfo v.11.0 (Pitney Bowes) and Idrisi Taiga (Сlarklabs) software. Results. The presence of host-plant species range and the correspondence of ecoclimatic conditions of Ukraine (as a pest risk analysis area) to the climate indices of the current area of distribution of such pests as Oemona hirta (lemon tree borer) and Thaumatotibia leucotreta (false codling moth) were studied using specifi ed software. The potential areas of establishment of these pests in Ukraine were defi ned. Conclusions. The effi ciency and convenience of me-thods of assessing the risk of establishment of adventive plant pests using Agro Atlas, MapInfo v.11.0 and Idrisi Taiga software, were proven. It was determined that a potential area of establishment of O. hirta is the sou-thern part of Odessa region, an inconsiderable part of south-west of Mykolayiv region, south-western territory of Kherson region and almost the entire territory of the Crimean Peninsula. A potential area of establishment of T. leucotreta is an inconsiderable territory of the Black Sea coast − Tarkhankut Penin- sula and Kerch Peninsula in the Crimea.