Forecast estimation of the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from the use of coal in the economy of Ukraine

Abstract

This paper is devoted to the study of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the predicted use of coal for the future, which is projected in the economic development of Ukraine until 2040. We analyzed the directions of present-day and promising use of coal in Ukraine according to the scenarios of its economic development with regard for the expected changes in its structure and volumes of technological energy saving for major consumers. The complexity of approach lies in taking into account the relations between economic, environmental, and energy challenges and constraints, i.e., determining the projected demand for coal takes into account the artificial restriction of access to energy resources in eastern Ukraine due to hostilities, restructuring the economy for military needs, and limited access to natural gas deposits as an alternative fuel in the Black Sea. The key issue in forecasting the demand for coal remains the maximally possible replacement of coal deficit by other, more affordable fuels (other brands of coal). It is important that Ukraine has acceded to the EU Directive on Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and developed a National Plan to Reduce Emissions from Large Combustion Plants. Taking into account the assertions of this Directive, we determined the options of forecasted demand for electricity, heat and coal by 2040 in the country, aggregated economic activities, and for the population in the conservative scenario and calculated the forecasts of greenhouse gas emissions from using coal by consumer groups according to these options. With the introduction of technically possible volumes of technological energy saving in such sections of the economy as Agriculture, Transport, and Other economic activities, there will be an increase in greenhouse gas emissions from coal use, which are in significant relative to emissions in the industrial sector and the country as a whole. In the section Energy (Electricity supply, Water supply, etc.), the growth of coal consumption is caused by the predicted structure of electricity generating capacities, which is presented in the publication [5]. However, in the Mining and Processing Industry, a significant reduction of these emissions is expected, and, in the country as a whole by 2040, the total reduction will reach at least 3466 thousand tons of CO2-eq. at using coal. Keywords: demand, coal, structure of economy, technological potential of energy saving, greenhouse gas emissions