VOLUMES FORECASTING OF COAL PRODUCTION IN UKRAINE

Abstract

A software subsystem for the formation of forecasts of coal production in Ukraine has been developed under the conditions of instability of the structure of the country's fuel bases, which arise as a result of force majeure factors, in particular, martial law, temporary occupation of the territory, destruction of mining enterprises, etc. The program was created with the aim of providing opportunities for a quick assessment of the impact of emergency situations in the country on production volumes in the coal industry and their further consideration during developing forecasts of the fuel supply of the economy, and the energy balance of the country as a whole. The software is created on the basis of databases detailed by coal mining facilities, and professional forecasts of the development of the coal industry, which take into account the mining and geological, technological, economic, and social features of the functioning of mines, as well as possible scenarios of their technological conversion, optimization of production areas and allows to make such forecasts by changing the expected production state of the mine upon the occurrence of force majeure circumstances. The developed forecast adjustment subsystem enables change quickly the structure and composition of the country's coal base; calculate the aggregate volumes of coal production, differentiated by grades of coal and its technological purpose and according to several scenarios of the technological development of the coal industry, which will take place under selected changes in the structure of the mine fund; form general production forecasts, which contain calculated aggregate volumes for all terms of the forecasting period. With the loss of all mines in the Luhansk region and some mines in the Donetsk region as a result of the full-scale invasion of Russia into Ukraine, the forecast scenarios of the development of the coal industry of Ukraine for the period until 2040 were adjusted using the software subsystem for forecasting the volume of coal production. Keywords: coal industry, software subsystem, forecasting, mining, development scenarios.