RISKS AND INDICATORS OF UKRAINE’S AGRICULTURE RESILIENCE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Abstract

Climate change is recognized as one of the most serious modern threats to the long-term goals of social development. In agriculture, this change provokes the lack of guaranteed incomes for agricultural producers and food security risks and can negatively affect the agricultural system resilience in general. Ensuring the agriculture resilience is related to greening, climate neutrality and high resistance to the negative effects of abrupt climate change. The study of the risks to agriculture resilience should have a systemic nature and be linked to the specific conditions of particular territory. It is proposed to group the risks to domestic agriculture resilience by the economic, climatic, environmental, and social areas of their manifestation. To effectively tackle the negative effects of climate change in agriculture and reduce the agrarian sector’s impact on the climate, timely forecasting and management of relevant risks are necessary, for which a system of resilience indicators must be formed. This will allow to identify vulnerabilities and gaps in the ability to ensure resilience, as well as to assess the effectiveness of measures to mitigate the negative impact of adverse factors on the resilience of agriculture. For the conditions of Ukraine, a comprehensive system of agricultural resilience indicators is proposed, which includes four blocks: economic, environmental and climate, social resilience, and climate neutrality. Key benchmarks for achieving resilience are determined: ensuring national food security and farmers' incomes; decrease in the agricultural crops yield volatility; reduction of agricultural carbon emissions; securing the personnel potential of agriculture. Calculations of relevant indicators proved that in the pre-war period (in particular, in 2021 compared to 2015) the situation was not threatening only in the economic area. Meanwhile, there were significant threats in environmental and climate resilience and climate neutrality areas.