Approaches to forecasting demography trends in the management of integrated area development

Abstract

The article is devoted to the innovative approach in the management of the area development for Ukraine based on demographic forecasting. Demographic forecasting is an essential element of informational supply for development and implementation of mid- and long-term social-economic development strategy and public administration of the area development. It is emphasized that the approach to solve this problem should be comprehensive. One of the modern options to settle the problem is based on borrowing European expertise on integrated development, which results, apart from social-economic growth and environment improvement, in significant increase in the number of European urban dwellers. Detailed demographic forecast should make a ground for decision-making and development of integrated area plans. Integrated development of areas, primarily urban ones, involves the development of all urban environment elements: transport, economy, economic and social infrastructure, etc. Therefore, it requires vertical integration, on one hand, of various public administration levels – national, regional, and local ones, and, on the other, of private sector and public society. Based on the analysis of demographic forecasting methods, the authors propose their own approach to area population forecasting, combining the component method that considers the net migration indices, the future employment estimating method and the similarity (correlation) method. The authors offer their own approach for area population forecasting based on a combination of cohort group method (considers the net migration indices), future employment estimate and similarity (correlation) methods. The common indices (birth and death rates, migration) should be the key components. However, the factors for their future changes should be defined individually based on the trends in the city's social-economic development. The proposed method takes into account the impact of the key drivers capable to change significantly the demographic forecasting when developing normative and functional demo-forecast options, and should make up the basis for social-economic strategic plans of urban development to be implemented by local authorities and self-government bodies. The theoretical provisions are supported with practical data of demographic forecasting for the implementation of integrated development strategy for the town of Poltava (Ukraine). Authors argue that demographic forecasting is optimal under the following conditions: detailed social-economic analysis of the city; and identification of strengths and weaknesses, and opportunities and threats. Based on the performed analysis and the objectives of perspective development, one can assess the opportunities for the improvement of demographic situation in the cities.