Abstract
The urgency of the problem of short-term forecasting of electricity imbalances in the conditions of the modern electricity market of Ukraine is substantiated. A comparison of the results of forecasting daily graphs of electricity imbalances using autoregressive models ARIMA, VARMA and developed on their basis combined models with the influence of predicted values of generation of renewable sources. Analysis of the obtained results shows that the VARMA vector autoregression model has accurate results. References 11, figures 2, tables 2.
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (Co. LTD Ukrinformnauka) (Publications)
Subject
Electrical and Electronic Engineering,Energy Engineering and Power Technology
Reference11 articles.
1. 1. Bazyuk T.M., Blinov I.V., Butkevych O.F., Goncharenko I.S., Denysyuk S.P., Zhujkov V.Y., Kyrylenko O.V., Lukyanenko L.M., Mykolaets D.A., Osypenko K.S., Pavlovskyi V.V., Rybina O.B., Stelyuk A.O., Tankevych S.E., Trach I.V. Intelligent electrical networks: elements and modes. Kyiv: Institute of Electrodynamics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 2016. 400 p. (Ukr).
2. 2. On the electricity market: Law of Ukraine No 2019-VIII of 13.04.2017. (Ukr)
3. 3. Ivanov H., Blinov I., Parus Ye. Simulation Model of New Electricity Market in Ukraine. IEEE 6th International Conference on Energy Smart Systems (ESS). Kyiv, Ukraine, April 17-19, 2019. Pp. 339-342. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/ESS.2019.8764184
4. 4. Blinov I., Kyrylenko O., Parus E., Rybina O. Decentralized Market Coupling with Taking Account. Power Systems Transmission Network Constraints. Power Systems Research and Operation. Part of the: Studies in Systems, Decision and Control. Vol 388. Springer, Cham. September 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-82926-1_1
5. 5. Blinov I., Tankevych S. The harmonized role model of electricity market in Ukraine. 2nd International Confer-ence on Intelligent Energy and Power Systems (IEPS). Kyiv, Ukraine, June 7-11, 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/IEPS.2016.7521861
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