Imodel of choosing the optimal risk events management strategy: threats and opportunities

Abstract

The study is devoted to the formation of an intelligent model for choosing and applying the optimal strategy for managing risk events, both threats and opportunities, of modern small IT projects with limited resources and implicit or uncertain influencing factors. The proposed model is built taking into account the decomposition of the process into three sub-processes, for which the criteria, target function, graphs of the development of events are proposed, taking into account the synergy of possible threats and opportunities. It is formed for the purpose of proactive management of risk events and is able to overcome uncertainty due to possible forecasting of future states for cases of a priori uncertainty and lack of information about possible consequences. The distribution of threats and opportunities is applied in the form of a developed unique target model with introduced weights of threats and opportunities based on expert assessments, taking into account the experience of experts from previous typical projects. Theoretical recommendations and risk management standards from the most common project management standards are taken into account. The developed intellectual model takes into account both the cost of implementing strategies and the total costs of their implementation.