World of plants of Ukraine in aspect of the climate change

Abstract

The monograph covers the issue of bioclimatology, the intensive development of which in recent decades is due to global climate change. Studies of the relationship between world of the plants and climate have been conducted using original approaches and methods (synphytoindication, ecological strategy of species) developed by the author. This allowed to attract a modern arsenal of mathematic methods and programs, to assess the relationships between ecological factors, to identify the climatic component, to reveal the mechanisms and to predict the development of phytocoenoses. Examples of phenological changes, distribution of alien and displacement of habitats of natural species of flora, possible loss of habitats of rare species, changes in the structure of coenoses of Ukraine as a reaction to climate change are given. It is established that the critical limit of the transition to the risk of habitat loss of rare species is an increase in the average annual temperature by + 2 °С. An increase in the average annual temperature by + 2.5 °С can lead to irreversible changes in more than half of natural habitats, although their rates are slow and changes will occur over a long period of time. In accordance with the specifics of the conditions of existence and distribution of plant communities, four bioclimatic regions of Ukraine have been identified, recommendations for adaptation and counteraction to possible negative consequences have been proposed. The changes in natural zonation as a landscape phenomenon determined by changes in soil chemical properties, soil humidity, and vegetation succession, even with a sharp rise in average temperatures, and acceleration of these processes may take a long time, given ecosystem inertia. However, negative consequences are already being recorded in various aspects: 1) Increase in temperature, increase in number of days with high temperature, increase in probability of droughts in the summer; 2) Fires and windthrows in the forests (increasing the number and scale); 3) Peat fires (increasing frequency and duration), which leads to increased CO2 emissions; 4) Drying of forests due to lower soil moisture; 5) Zoonoses and other diseases (earlier development of insects, microorganisms, increasing the number of reproductive cycles) as dangerous outbreaks of disease; 6) Algal bloom in reservoirs, eutrophication (pollution by organic compounds due to excessive development of algae that die and decay and thus because of lack of oxygen are harmful to fish stocks); 7) Expansion of alien species of plants and animals, including those causing diseases; 8) Reduction of populations of rare species and their extinction, leading to biodiversity loss; 9) Degradation, fragmentation of natural habitats that disrupt their functioning and lead to loss of ecosystems; 10) Degradation of steppe ecosystems due to clogging, afforestation with alien species, translating the processes of humus formation in chernozems to podzolization and loss of humus, reducing the fertility of these soils; 11) Salinization of soils in the south with negative consequences for agriculture and deteriorating living conditions of the population; 12) Yield losses of certain agricultural species, food and economic losses.