Targeting of Social Programs at Vulnerable Groups: Sustainable Trends and Post-War Prospects

Abstract

The main problem of Ukrainian social support system for many years was insufficient targeting of social programs at the most vulnerable sections of the population. Significant impoverishment of the country’s population and expansion of the range of vulnerable contingents as a result of the war exacerbates the problem of allocating limited resources to the most needy. Delaying the solution of this problem during the period of hostilities and post-war reconstruction will have a negative, and in some cases, a destructive impact on society, both in the context of observing the principles of social justice and effective support of people in difficult times, and in the context of the risks of slowdown in economic growth. The purpose of the article is to assess the pre-war system of social support in the context of its targeting at vulnerable sections of the population in order to find better ways and opportunities for post-war reform. The novelty of the work consists in the combination of assessments of the scale of diverse vulnerability with assessments of the targeting of active social programs at groups with higher vulnerability and/or larger numbers. Such an assessment will make it possible to determine not only to what extent this or that program reaches the target contingents or the poor, but also to what extent it reaches each vulnerable group. Such a tool would be more effective in determining the shortcomings of existing programs, developing ways to reform them, or making a decision to replace them with new ones. In addition, forecast estimates for 2023 regarding the introduction of the new universal social assistance planned by government officials were made in the work for the first time. Research methods. Along with the generally accepted methods of statistical analysis, the research used the micromodeling method to work with the micro-data of the survey of the living conditions of households in Ukraine and to forecast the parameters of social programs for 2023. To evaluate the indicators of the impact of social programs, a special program module ADePT, developed by the World Bank for unified methodical support of the analysis of the social support system, was used.