The Impact of Objective and Subjective Factors on Fertility in Times of Uncertainty

Abstract

The article examines a complex of objective and subjective factors that determine fertility on a macro and micro level, as well as the specificity of their relationships during periods of uncertainty. The purpose of this study is to identify objective and subjective factors of fertility, analyze the relationships between them, and the characteristics of their influence under conditions of socio-economic and military-political uncertainty in Ukraine. To accomplish this, a range of methods were employed, including systematization and generalization, critical evaluation of scientific progress in the relevant field, categorization, conceptual modeling of factors affecting demographic processes (reproductive behavior and fertility), structural-logical analysis, comparative analysis and others. The novelty of the work lies in identifying the nature of the influence of objective and subjective factors, their interrelationships and role in the determination of fertility on a macro and micro level in conditions of uncertainty. Objective and subjective factors are interrelated and, depending on the context and level of fertility determination (macro or micro level), their significance and the nature of influence differ. The specificity of the relationship between objective and subjective factors of fertility is reflected in the “transition” of ones into others at various levels. The influence of objective factors on fertility is mostly mediated and occurs through subjective perception by individuals of any particular objective factors and circumstances. Subjective perceptions at the micro level are characterized by variability and may not coincide with the nature of changes in objective factors. In conditions of uncertainty and social upheavals (such as economic crisis, pandemic, war, etc.), discrepancies increase, and the influence of the subjective in fertility determination increases and takes on special characteristics. One manifestation of this is the increased role of expectations for the future (narratives of the future) in reproductive decision-making. Positive narratives about the future, reinforced by the implementation of measures to improve the quality of life for the population in a free democratic space, could become a driving force for increasing birth rate in Ukraine, parti - cularly for strengthening the compensatory effect in its dynamics after the war.