Victory-in-freedom: Ukraine’s democratic resilience in the face of war

Abstract

The article offers a rare systematic analysis of political attitudes in societies experiencing massive military invasions using statistical analysis of two original surveys conducted by the Ukraine National Academy of Sciences Institute of Sociology — a panel survey tracking the same respondents in three waves (N = 329, November 2021, June-July 2022, and June 2023) and an additional larger survey (N = 869, June 2023). Despite devastating suffering, Ukrainians’ support for democracy as a political system and for freedom of speech have stayed remarkably resilient over this time period. Cross-sectional (multiple ordinary least squares regression) and longitudinal (linear mixed-effects model regression) tests, as well as supplementary focus group conversations in all of Ukraine’s macro-regions, show that this democratic resilience is grounded in the victory-in-freedom synergy — a widespread sense of shared sacrifice that drives determination to win the war and restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity. In particular, we found a clearer understanding of the importance of political freedoms and fighting for victory among individuals who experienced loss and trauma and a strong appreciation across Ukraine’s society that victory is vital to preserve democracy. Survey data also demonstrates that democracy support has become more intrinsic to Ukrainian national identity and that the initial surge of democracy support among Ukrainians in the face of Russia’s invasion has been more than a short-term rallying-round-the-flag. In combination, these factors explain the Ukrainians’ sustained, spirited resilience in the face Russia’s mass savage invasion over more than a two-year period. Moreover, support for democratic ideals doesn’t mean Ukrainians write a blank check of trust to their government. Longitudinal analysis indicates that as the war progressed, and hardship persisted respondents held their democratic institutions accountable. At the same time, the results of our study indicate that sustaining this resilience would require not only battlefield successes, but also accountable governance, countering Russia’s media impacts, and sustaining family incomes. Our findings contribute to the literature on war and democracy by showing the importance of considering both the external context (war duration and impacts and the aggressor state type) and the mobilization of national identity in the face of aggression.