Effect of Patterns of Transferring Patients among Healthcare Institutions on Rates of Nosocomial Methicillin-ResistantStaphylococcus aureusTransmission: A Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

Objective.To determine the effect of the rate and pattern of patient transfers among institutions within a single metropolitan area on the rates of methicillin-resistantStaphylococcus aureus(MRSA) transmission among patients in hospitals and nursing homes.Methods.A stochastic, discrete-time, Monte Carlo simulation was used to model the rate and spread of MRSA transmission among patients in medical institutions within a single metropolitan area. Admission, discharges, transfers, and nosocomial transmission were simulated with respect to different interinstitutional transfer strategies and various situational scenarios, such as outlier institutions with high transmission rates.Results.The simulation results indicated that transfer patterns and transfer rate changes do not affect nosocomial MRSA transmission. Outlier institutions with high transmission rates affect the systemwide rate of nosocomial infections differently, depending on institution type.Conclusion.It is worth effort to understanding disease-transmission dynamics and interinstitutional transfer patterns for the management of recently introduced diseases or strains. Once endemic in a system, other strategies for transmission control need to be implemented.