Debt Sustainability of Latin American Countries in the post-COVID Economy

Abstract

Annually growing public debt of Latin American countries is a source of a consistent increase in regional crisis potential. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated political instability and deepened socio-economic imbalances in the region. The chronic dependence on debt financing increases the region’s vulnerability to external shocks and makes it much more challenging to implement public policies to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The purpose of the article is to reveal the increasing nature of the debt risks inherent in the Latin American countries, and to propose measures to overcome them. The authors summarize the views of leading Russian and foreign experts on the debt sustainability of the region. Based on the statistical data of international organizations, regional development institutions, as well as analytical materials published by Bloomberg, Fitch, White Case or Deloitte, the authors analyze the approaches to solving the Latin American debt problem. However, considering recent debt dynamics, new public borrowings may cause a deterioration of the regional debt sustainability in the future. This issue reinforces the uncertainty in international investment circles regarding the future solvency of the Latin American region. The situation in the Latin American countries is exacerbated by the uncertainty whether positive rates of economic growth resume in the medium term that have been lost due to volatile global commodity prices. The study examines the prospects for regional economic stabilization in Latin America and the Caribbean, including through the use of new debt financing mechanisms to meet current financial needs and minimize the risks of financial vulnerability.