Current and future global potential distribution of the fruit fly Drosophila suzukii (Diptera: Drosophilidae)

Abstract

AbstractDrosophila suzukii (Matsumura) (Diptera: Drosophilidae) is a pest that causes severe damage to various fruits, generating economic losses. We evaluated its potential geographic distribution under current and future climatic conditions using an ecological niche modelling approach, based on the largest available database on occurrence records for this species. Additionally, we identified areas of risk to agricultural land and crops. Predictions under current climatic conditions indicated that this species is likely to be present across broad swaths of the United States of America, southeastern Asia, southeastern Australia, New Zealand, and Europe. We predict considerable expansion of its potential range for 2050, mainly in the Northern Hemisphere, because of ongoing climate change, under both low and high emissions scenarios.