Predicting the Size of European Corn Borer Infestations (Ostrinia nubilalis Hbn.)

Abstract

AbstractA method of forecasting the size of first-generation or summer infestations of Ostrinia nubilalis in Kent County, Ontario, is described. A function is derived from partial regression analysis relating the estimated size of the expected summer infestation to (1) the number of females caught in a light-trap during the first or spring flight, and (2) average rainfall per day during the first flight. The function explains 94% of the observed variation in estimated size of first-generation infestations in this area between 1947 and 1961. A means of categorizing the estimated size of the predicted infestation based on the frequency distribution of previously estimated infestations is also described. Methods of sampling and estimating population size and the applicability of the predictive equation to other environments are discussed.