Response to Global Warming of Eichwald's Toad, Bufo eichwaldi Litvinchuk, Borkin, Skorinov and Rosanov, 2008 (Anura; Amphibia) in Iran and Azerbaijan

Abstract

Global warming is considered to be a major threat to biodiversity and to have an erosive effect on the survival of endangered species. Amphibians are known as a vulnerable group of vertebrates that live and reproduce in both terrestrial and aquatic habitats. The subtropical regions of the world are among the land areas where amphibians will suffer the most from climate change. In the present study, the effect of climate change on Bufo eichwaldi inhabiting Hyrcanian forests was investigated. According to our results, the lowest temperature in the coldest season is the most important variable for the presence of this species. Due to the beginning of reproductive activity and mating taking place in late January until the end of February, this variable will have a direct effect on the rate of breeding and thus on the conservation of this species, because the species can find a new suitable area outside of high humanisation and increase its chance of successful breeding. Of course, climate change will cause the average annual temperature to rise by 2070, and this will favour the early onset of reproduction. Therefore, according to the analysis and scenarios considered in this study, global warming cannot have a negative effect on the toad species. However, a careful assessment of the status of other competing species in conjunction with the Talysh toad could provide a better explanation of the impact of climate change.