Effect of meteorological factors on influenza-like illness from 2012 to 2015 in Huludao, a northeastern city in China

Abstract

Background This study aims to describe the epidemiological patterns of influenza-like illness (ILI) in Huludao, China and seek scientific evidence on the link of ILI activity with weather factors. Methods Surveillance data of ILI cases between January 2012 and December 2015 was collected in Huludao Central Hospital, meteorological data was obtained from the China Meteorological Data Service Center. Generalized additive model (GAM) was used to seek the relationship between the number of ILI cases and the meteorological factors. Multiple Smoothing parameter estimation was made on the basis of Poisson distribution, where the number of weekly ILI cases was treated as response, and the smoothness of weather was treated as covariates. Lag time was determined by the smallest Akaike information criterion (AIC). Smoothing coefficients were estimated for the prediction of the number of ILI cases. Results A total of 29, 622 ILI cases were observed during the study period, with children ILI cases constituted 86.77%. The association between ILI activity and meteorological factors varied across different lag periods. The lag time for average air temperature, maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature, vapor pressure and relative humidity were 2, 2, 1, 1 and 0 weeks, respectively. Average air temperature, maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature, vapor pressure and relative humidity could explain 16.5%, 9.5%, 18.0%, 15.9% and 7.7% of the deviance, respectively. Among the temperature indexes, the minimum temperature played the most important role. The number of ILI cases peaked when minimum temperature was around −13 °C in winter and 18 °C in summer. The number of cases peaked when the relative humidity was equal to 43% and then began to decrease with the increase of relative humidity. When the humidity exceeded 76%, the number of ILI cases began to rise. Conclusions The present study first analyzed the relationship between meteorological factors and ILI cases with special consideration of the length of lag period in Huludao, China. Low air temperature and low relative humidity (cold and dry weather condition) played a considerable role in the epidemic pattern of ILI cases. The trend of ILI activity could be possibly predicted by the variation of meteorological factors.