Recent advances on the estimation of the thermal reaction norm for sex ratios

Abstract

Temperature-dependent sex determination, or TSD, is a widespread phenomenon in reptiles. The shape of the relationship between constant incubation temperature and sex ratio defines the TSD pattern. The TSD pattern is considered a life-history parameter important for conservation because the wider the range of temperatures producing both sexes, the more resilient the species is to climate change impacts. We review the different published equations and methodologies that have been used to model TSD patterns. We describe a new flexible model that allows for an asymmetrical pattern around the pivotal temperature, which is the constant temperature producing both sexes in equal proportions. We show that Metropolis-Hastings with Markov chain produced by a Monte Carlo process has many advantages compared to maximum likelihood and is preferred. Finally, we apply the models to results from incubation experiments using eggs from the marine turtle Lepidochelys olivacea originating in Northeast Indian, East Pacific, and West Atlantic Regional Management Units (RMUs) and find large differences in pivotal temperatures but not in transitional ranges of temperatures.