Development and validation of a multi-parameter nomogram for predicting prostate cancer: a retrospective analysis from Handan Central Hospital in China

Abstract

Background To explore the possible predicting factors related to prostate cancer and develop a validated nomogram for predicting the probability of patients with prostate cancer. Method Clinical data of 697 patients who underwent prostate biopsy in Handan Central Hospital from January 2014 to January 2020 were retrospectively collected. Cases were randomized into two groups: 80% (548 cases) as the development group, and 20% (149 cases) as the validation group. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the independent risk factors for prostate cancer. The nomogram prediction model was generated using the finalized independent risk factors. Decision curve analysis (DCA) and the area under receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) of both development group and validation group were calculated and compared to validate the accuracy and efficiency of the nomogram prediction model. Clinical utility curve (CUC) helped to decide the desired cut-off value for the prediction model. The established nomogram with Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Derived Cancer Risk Calculator (PCPT-CRC) and other domestic prediction models using the entire study population were compared. Results The independent risk factors determined through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were: age, tPSA, fPSA, PV, DRE, TRUS and BMI. Nomogram prediction model was developed with the cut-off value of 0.31. The AUC of development group and validation group were 0.856 and 0.797 respectively. DCA exhibits consistent observations with the findings. Through validating our prediction model as well as other three domestic prediction models based on the entire study population of 697 cases, our prediction model demonstrated significantly higher predictive value than all the other models. Conclusion The nomogram for predicting prostate cancer can facilitate more accurate evaluation of the probability of having prostate cancer, and provide better ground for prostate biopsy.