A decision support system for primary headache developed through machine learning

Abstract

Background Primary headache is a disorder with a high incidence and low diagnostic accuracy; the incidence of migraine and tension-type headache ranks first among primary headaches. Artificial intelligence (AI) decision support systems have shown great potential in the medical field. Therefore, we attempt to use machine learning to build a clinical decision-making system for primary headaches. Methods The demographic data and headache characteristics of 173 patients were collected by questionnaires. Decision tree, random forest, gradient boosting algorithm and support vector machine (SVM) models were used to construct a discriminant model and a confusion matrix was used to calculate the evaluation indicators of the models. Furthermore, we have carried out feature selection through univariate statistical analysis and machine learning. Results In the models, the accuracy, F1 score were calculated through the confusion matrix. The logistic regression model has the best discrimination effect, with the accuracy reaching 0.84 and the area under the ROC curve also being the largest at 0.90. Furthermore, we identified the most important factors for distinguishing the two disorders through statistical analysis and machine learning: nausea/vomiting and photophobia/phonophobia. These two factors represent potential independent factors for the identification of migraines and tension-type headaches, with the accuracy reaching 0.74 and the area under the ROC curve being at 0.74. Conclusions Applying machine learning to the decision-making system for primary headaches can achieve a high diagnostic accuracy. Among them, the discrimination effect obtained by the integrated algorithm is significantly better than that of a single learner. Second, nausea/vomiting, photophobia/phonophobia may be the most important factors for distinguishing migraine from tension-type headaches.