Development and validation of a nomogram risk prediction model for malignancy in dermatomyositis patients: a retrospective study

Abstract

Background Dermatomyositis accompanied with malignancy is a common poor prognostic factor of dermatomyositis. Thus, the early prediction of the risk of malignancy in patients with dermatomyositis can significantly improve the prognosis of patients. However, the identification of antibodies related to malignancy in dermatomyositis patients has not been widely implemented in clinical practice. Herein, we established a predictive nomogram model for the diagnosis of dermatomyositis associated with malignancy. Methods We retrospectively analyzed 240 cases of dermatomyositis patients admitted to Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University from January 2002 to December 2019. According to the year of admission, the first 70% of the patients were used to establish a training cohort, and the remaining 30% were assigned to the validation cohort. Univariate analysis was performed on all variables, and statistically relevant variables were further included in a multivariate logistic regression analysis to screen for independent predictors. Finally, a nomogram was constructed based on these independent predictors. Bootstrap repeated sampling calculation C-index was used to evaluate the model’s calibration, and area under the curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the model discrimination ability. Results Multivariate logistic analysis showed that patients older than 50-year-old, dysphagia, refractory itching, and elevated creatine kinase were independent risk factors for dermatomyositis associated with malignancy, while interstitial lung disease was a protective factor. Based on this, we constructed a nomogram using the above-mentioned five factors. The C-index was 0.780 (95% CI [0.690–0.870]) in the training cohort and 0.756 (95% CI [0.618–0.893]) in the validation cohort, while the AUC value was 0.756 (95% CI [0.600–0.833]). Taken together, our nomogram showed good calibration and was effective in predicting which dermatomyositis patients were at a higher risk of developing malignant tumors.