Hemogram data as a tool for decision-making in COVID-19 management: applications to resource scarcity scenarios

Abstract

BackgroundCOVID-19 pandemics has challenged emergency response systems worldwide, with widespread reports of essential services breakdown and collapse of health care structure. A critical element involves essential workforce management since current protocols recommend release from duty for symptomatic individuals, including essential personnel. Testing capacity is also problematic in several countries, where diagnosis demand outnumbers available local testing capacity.PurposeThis work describes a machine learning model derived from hemogram exam data performed in symptomatic patients and how they can be used to predict qRT-PCR test results.MethodsHemogram exams data from 510 symptomatic patients (73 positives and 437 negatives) were used to model and predict qRT-PCR results through Naïve-Bayes algorithms. Different scarcity scenarios were simulated, including symptomatic essential workforce management and absence of diagnostic tests. Adjusts in assumedpriorprobabilities allow fine-tuning of the model, according to actual prediction context.ResultsProposed models can predict COVID-19 qRT-PCR results in symptomatic individuals with high accuracy, sensitivity and specificity, yielding a 100% sensitivity and 22.6% specificity with apriorof 0.9999; 76.7% for both sensitivity and specificity with apriorof 0.2933; and 0% sensitivity and 100% specificity with apriorof 0.001. Regarding background scarcity context, resources allocation can be significantly improved when model-based patient selection is observed, compared to random choice.ConclusionsMachine learning models can be derived from widely available, quick, and inexpensive exam data in order to predict qRT-PCR results used in COVID-19 diagnosis. These models can be used to assist strategic decision-making in resource scarcity scenarios, including personnel shortage, lack of medical resources, and testing insufficiency.