A CT-based integrated model for preoperative prediction of occult lymph node metastasis in early tongue cancer

Abstract

Background Occult lymph node metastasis (OLNM) is an essential prognostic factor for early-stage tongue cancer (cT1-2N0M0) and a determinant of treatment decisions. Therefore, accurate prediction of OLNM can significantly impact the clinical management and outcomes of patients with tongue cancer. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a multiomics-based model to predict OLNM in patients with early-stage tongue cancer. Methods The data of 125 patients diagnosed with early-stage tongue cancer (cT1-2N0M0) who underwent primary surgical treatment and elective neck dissection were retrospectively analyzed. A total of 100 patients were randomly assigned to the training set and 25 to the test set. The preoperative contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) and clinical data on these patients were collected. Radiomics features were extracted from the primary tumor as the region of interest (ROI) on CT images, and correlation analysis and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method were used to identify the most relevant features. A support vector machine (SVM) classifier was constructed and compared with other machine learning algorithms. With the same method, a clinical model was built and the peri-tumoral and intra-tumoral images were selected as the input for the deep learning model. The stacking ensemble technique was used to combine the multiple models. The predictive performance of the integrated model was evaluated for accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), and compared with expert assessment. Internal validation was performed using a stratified five-fold cross-validation approach. Results Of the 125 patients, 41 (32.8%) showed OLNM on postoperative pathological examination. The integrated model achieved higher predictive performance compared with the individual models, with an accuracy of 84%, a sensitivity of 100%, a specificity of 76.5%, and an AUC-ROC of 0.949 (95% CI [0.870–1.000]). In addition, the performance of the integrated model surpassed that of younger doctors and was comparable to the evaluation of experienced doctors. Conclusions The multiomics-based model can accurately predict OLNM in patients with early-stage tongue cancer, and may serve as a valuable decision-making tool to determine the appropriate treatment and avoid unnecessary neck surgery in patients without OLNM.