Assessing future shifts in habitat suitability and connectivity to old-growth forests to support the conservation of the endangered giant noctule

Abstract

Background Suitable climate and availability of habitats for roosting, foraging, and dispersing are critical for the long-term persistence of bat species. The giant noctule (Nyctalus lasiopterus) represents one of the lesser-known European bats, especially regarding the environmental factors which shape its distribution. Methodology We integrated climate-based ecological niche models with information about topography and rivers’ network to model weighted suitability for N. lasiopterus in the western Palearctic. The weighted suitability map was then used to estimate connectivity among the distinct occurrence localities of N. lasiopterus, as well as from these latter towards European old-growth forests, under current conditions and different combinations of future timeframes (2030, 2050, 2070) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs 3.70 and 5.85). Results Current weighted suitability is highest in Andalusia, northern Iberia, southwestern France, peninsular Italy, coastal Balkans and Anatolia, with dispersed suitable patches elsewhere. A north-eastward shift of weighted suitability emerges in the considered future scenarios, especially under SSP 5.85. The major current ecological corridors for N. lasiopterus are predicted within a ‘belt’ connecting northern Spain and southwestern France, as well as in the Italian Alps. However, following changes in weighted suitability, connectivity would increase in central-eastern Europe in the future. The bioclimatic niche of the western N. lasiopterus populations does not overlap with those of the central and eastern ones, and it only overlaps with climatic conditions characterizing old-growth forests in western Europe. Conclusions The outcomes of our analyses would help in designing specific conservation measures for the distinct groups of giant noctule populations, favoring the possibility of range expansion and movement towards forested habitats.