FMC2 model based perception grading for dark insurgent network analysis

Abstract

The burgeoning role of social network analysis (SNA) in various fields raises complex challenges, particularly in the analysis of dark and dim networks involved in illicit activities. Existing models like the stochastic block model (SBM), exponential graph model (EGM), and latent space model (LSM) are limited in scope, often only suitable for one-mode networks. This article introduces a novel fuzzy multiple criteria multiple constraint model (FMC2) tailored for community detection in two-mode networks, which are particularly common in dark networks. The proposed method quantitatively determines the relationships between nodes based on a probabilistic measure and uses distance metrics to identify communities within the network. Moreover, the model establishes fuzzy boundaries to differentiate between the most and least influential nodes. We validate the efficacy of FMC2 using the Noordin Terrorist dataset and conduct extensive simulations to evaluate performance metrics. The results demonstrate that FMC2 not only effectively identifies communities but also ranks influential nodes within them, contributing to a nuanced understanding of complex networks. The method promises broad applicability and adaptability, particularly in intelligence and security domains where identifying influential actors within covert networks is critical.