Multi-step rainfall forecasting using deep learning approach

Abstract

Rainfall prediction is immensely crucial in daily life routine as well as for water resource management, stochastic hydrology, rain run-off modeling and flood risk mitigation. Quantitative prediction of rainfall time series is extremely challenging as compared to other meteorological parameters due to its variability in local features that involves temporal and spatial scales. Consequently, this requires a highly complex system having an advance model to accurately capture the highly non linear processes occurring in the climate. The focus of this work is direct prediction of multistep forecasting, where a separate time series model for each forecasting horizon is considered and forecasts are computed using observed data samples. Forecasting in this method is performed by proposing a deep learning approach, i.e, Temporal Deep Belief Network (DBN). The best model is selected from several baseline models on the basis of performance analysis metrics. The results suggest that the temporal DBN model outperforms the conventional Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) specifically on rainfall time series forecasting. According to our experimentation, a modified DBN with hidden layes (300-200-100-10) performs best with 4.59E−05, 0.0068 and 0.94 values of MSE, RMSE and R value respectively on testing samples. However, we found that training DBN is more exhaustive and computationally intensive than other deep learning architectures. Findings of this research can be further utilized as basis for the advance forecasting of other weather parameters with same climate conditions.