Predicting central cervical lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma using deep learning

Abstract

Background The aim of this study is to design a deep learning (DL) model to preoperatively predict the occurrence of central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC). Methods This research collected preoperative ultrasound (US) images and clinical factors of 611 PTMC patients. The clinical factors were analyzed using multivariate regression. Then, a DL model based on US images and clinical factors was developed to preoperatively predict CLNM. The model’s efficacy was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, along with accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and the F1 score. Results The multivariate analysis indicated an independent correlation factors including age ≥55 (OR = 0.309, p < 0.001), tumor diameter (OR = 2.551, p = 0.010), macrocalcifications (OR = 1.832, p = 0.002), and capsular invasion (OR = 1.977, p = 0.005). The suggested DL model utilized US images achieved an average area under the curve (AUC) of 0.65, slightly outperforming the model that employed traditional clinical factors (AUC = 0.64). Nevertheless, the model that incorporated both of them did not enhance prediction accuracy (AUC = 0.63). Conclusions The suggested approach offers a reference for the treatment and supervision of PTMC. Among three models used in this study, the deep model relied generally more on image modalities than the data modality of clinic records when making the predictions.