Landscape predictors influencing livestock depredation by leopards in and around Annapurna Conservation Area, Nepal

Abstract

Livestock depredation by leopards is a pervasive issue across many Asian and African range countries, particularly in and around protected areas. Developing effective conflict mitigation strategies requires understanding the landscape features influencing livestock depredation. In this study, we investigated predictors associated with livestock depredation by leopards using 274 cases of leopard attacks on livestock that occurred between 2017 and 2020 in the Annapurna Conservation Area, Nepal. We also examined how livestock predation by leopards varied depending on the species, season, and time. A generalized linear model with binary logistic regression was used to test the statistical significance of variables associated with the presence and absence of conflict sites. The results revealed that the area of forest, agricultural land, length of rivers, slope, proximity to settlements and protected areas, and elevation significantly predicted the probability of leopard attacks on livestock. We also observed a significant increase in the incidence of leopard predation on livestock with decreasing slopes and rising elevations. The areas near human settlements and the protected areas faced a higher risk of leopard predation. The incidence of leopard predation on livestock varied significantly depending on the livestock species, season, and time. Goats were the most highly predated livestock, followed by sheep, cow/ox, and buffalo. A total of 289.11 km2 (or around 5% of the research area) was deemed to be at high risk for leopard predation on livestock. This study’s comprehensive understanding of human-leopard conflicts provides valuable insights for planning and implementing measures to reduce damage caused by leopard populations throughout their range.