A Scoring System to Determine the Risk Factors Causing Recurrent Pulmonary Thromboembolism

Abstract

Background: The risk of recurrence in pulmonary embolism is the highest in the first week after the acute event. Although it decreases over time, it may remain high for months depending on compliance with treatment and the nature of the underlying risk factor. Our study aimed to identify risk factors that lead to recurrence in pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE) patients and establish an easy-to-use scoring system that determines the risk of recurrence after the first embolism. Methods: We retrospectively evaluated 1452 patients who were diagnosed with acute PTE between 7/1/2014 and 7/1/2019. Demographic data, comorbidities and clinical data of the patients, and risk factors were recorded. The relationship of the examined parameters with recurrent PTE was evaluated. Results: Diabetes mellitus (DM), hypertension, obesity, and the presence of at least one hereditary risk factor were found to be associated with recurrence. The sensitivity of our score was 66.9%, the specificity was 63.2%, the positive predictive value was 19%, and the negative predictive value was 93.7%. The risk of recurrence in the patients identified as high-risk in the scoring system was 3.47 times higher than those identified as low-risk. Conclusion: In terms of risk of recurrence, special attention should be paid to patients with diabetes, HT, obesity and any of the hereditary risk factors. Using scoring systems to determine the risk of recurrence will be valuable and interesting as it is easy-to-use, gives quick results and provides quantitative results.