Weather data generator to study climate change on buildings

Abstract

Most computer programs that analyse the yearly performance of buildings require an input of historical series of weather data measured at the location of interest. However, analyses of climate change scenarios needs hourly weather data series that allow realistic changes in various weather parameters. This can not be done easily with the reference years based on measured weather data normally used. In this paper a weather generator is proposed in which climate changes can be implemented. Based on weather data observed over years a stochastic weather model is developed. This model is used to make a general model independent of the location and with which climate changes can be simulated. The general model can be adapted to a local climate change. Only new averaged values of the weather variables being the result of a climate change should be used as input. The model is able to generate hourly weather data that can be used as input for all kind of simulation programs to study the effect of climate change on the design and energy consumption of HVAC systems.