Prognostic significance of laboratory parameters in assessment the severity of the course and outcome of coronavirus disease (COVID-19)

Abstract

   The objective – to evaluate the dynamics and prognostic value of inflammatory markers and other laboratory parameters in the blood of patientswith COVID-19 and to assess the severity of the course and mortality in this disease.   Materials and Methods. The clinical and laboratory data of 819 patients with COVID-19 treated in a hospital were retrospectively analyzed. In 700 (85.5 %) patients, the disease occurred in a moderate form, these patients were recovered. Patients with severe course (n = 119) were treated in the intensive care unit, of which 47 (39.5 %) patients had a favorable outcome and 72 (60.5 %) patients died. All patients underwent clinical, biochemical (including IL-6) and coagulological studies at admission and in dynamics. The concentration of IL-1ß, IL-8, IL-10, tumor necrosis factor TNF-α were additionally measured in patients with severe COVID-19.   Results. Initially, patients with severe disease, compared with moderate, had higher levels of C-reactive protein (p < 0.001), LDH (p = 0,007), D-dimers (p = 0.028), fibrinogen (p = 0.014), the number of white blood cells (p = 0.018), as well as lower levels of albumin (p < 0.001). In the group of patients with fatal outcome, higher levels of LDH (p = 0.008), creatinine (p = 0.009), urea (p < 0.001), troponin (p = 0.024), D-dimers (p = 0.002), fibrinogen (p = 0.009), the relative content of immature leukocytes (p = 0.004), neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (p = 0.022) were found than in survivors. On the 7th day of hospitalization, an acute increase in ferritin, urea, D-dimers, LDH, interleukins was noted in the group of deceased patients. Using the observer’s operating curves method, predictors of an unfavorable outcome in COVID-19 were determined: IL-10 above 9.46 pg/ml (area under the ROC curve AUC = 0.902), urea above 6.6 mmol/L (AUC = 0.815), TNF-α above 12.6 pg/ml (AUC = 0.799), C-reactive protein above 59.6 mg/L (AUC = 0.714), LDH above 348 U/L (AUC = 0.702), neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio above 4.94 (AUC = 0.700), IL-6 above 62.2 pg/ml (AUC = 0.686), ferritin above 772 μg/L (AUC = 0.654).   Conclusions. Baseline levels of LDH, D-dimers, and fibrinogen have a discriminatory ability to determine both the severity and the outcome of COVID-19. The severity of the inflammatory response upon admission correlates with the severity of the disease, but has no prognostic value. At the time of admission, patients with an unfavorable outcome already have initial manifestations of organ dysfunction (assessed by creatinine, urea, and troponin levels). On the 7th day of hospitalization, the relationship of values and the outcome appears in ferritin and interleukin 6. The presence of a strong correlation between the levels of interleukins IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, TNF-α makes it possible to measure any of them.