Potential Suitable Area of Invasive Species Cryptomonas sp. under Climate Change Scenarios in China Sea Areas

Abstract

Alien invasive algae along with ship ballast water have posed a serious threat to China’s marine ecological security. A clear understanding of the geographical distribution of invasive species and their response to climate change can provide a scientifi c basis for their prevention and control. In this study, combined with environmental variables and distribution data, MaxEnt was used to predict the potential geographical distribution and change trend of Cryptomonas sp. in the four major sea areas of China in current, 2040s (2031-2050) and 2090s (2081-2100), reveal the dominant environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution, analyze the migration trends of centroids the highly suitable area, and clarify the key control sea areas. Results showed that: 1) The most important environmental variable affecting the geographical distribution of Cryptomonas sp. was the Temperature. Range (bio24). 2) Under current climate condition, the suitability index of Cryptomonas sp. in the whole sea area of the Yellow Sea, the northern sea area of the East China Sea, and the corresponding sea areas of Jiaxing, Ningbo, Dongying, Weifang and Zhangzhou, and special attention should be paid to the prevention and control of Cryptomonas sp.. 3) Under the scenarios in 2040s (2031-2050) and 2090s (2081-2100), the total suitable area and highly suitable areas of Cryptomonas sp. in the four sea areas of China showed an increasing trend. 4) Under climate change scenarios in 2040s and 2090s, in the Yellow Sea, the centroid of the highly suitable area of Cryptomonas sp. would generally move to the southeast or southwest. In the Bohai Sea and the East China Sea, the centroid showed a trend of moving to different latitudes and directions under different scenarios. In the Bohai Sea, the centroid showed a trend of moving to the north. These moving trends indicated that Cryptomonas sp. may adapt to climate change by changingtheir distribution areas.