Migratory, Genetic and Phenetic Response Potential of Forest Tree Populations Facing Climate Change

Abstract

Forest trees are especially vulnerable to climatic oscillations due to their long lifespan. Out of the possible mechanisms of acclimation and adaptation, natural selection and migration will play a subordinate role because of the relatively high speed of expected changes. Phenotypic plasticity retains on the other hand primary importance. Analysis of common garden experiments and of health monitoring data indicate that response across the distribution area will be differentiated. The lowlatitude, low elevation periphery is especially threatened, while growth in the northern part of ranges will accelerate (in case moisture conditions will remain favourable). Comparing the velocity of predicted changes and the constraints of the buffering mechanisms of species for adaptation, it is obvious that human interference will be essential for the maintenance of ecosystem stability. Forest genetic and ecology research results have to be synthesised to better elucidate the requirements of stability and response of forest ecosystems under predicted climatic conditions.