Threats to National Spatial Development: Features of Assessment

Abstract

Aim.The presented study aims to assess threats to national spatial development, determining the significance of each threat.Tasks.The authors identify factors that influence the specific aspects of the national socioeconomic system's spatial organization; propose and test methodological tools for assessing parameters that make it possible to determine the scale of such threats.Methods.This study uses a proprietary methodology to assess the features of spatial transformations by determining the values of a set of indicators. These can be interpreted by comparing the obtained values with threshold values, each determined individually, making it possible to calculate the significance of the estimated risk (red, yellow, or green zone).Results.By summarizing the scientific literature, the authors identify factors of spatial development in the Russian Federation related to the parameters of spatial integrity, connectivity, uniformity, and efficiency of use. An algorithm for analyzing threats to national spatial development is proposed, which makes allowance for these specific factors. Indicators that characterize the state of each factor and criteria that make it possible to interpret each of the considered parameters are selected. Testing of the proposed methodology shows the significance of threats to spatial development in the Russian Federation. The threat of disrupting sustainable infrastructure connections between territories has a high degree of risk. The prospect of losing certain elements of the country's spatial framework, increasing spatial fragmentation, reducing connectivity and efficiency of the socio-economic space have a moderate degree of risk (although gradual deterioration of parameters associated with these threats could complicate the situation in the future, moving these threats to the "red" zone).Conclusions. Testing of the proposed methodological tools makes it possible to identify threats to national spatial development and assess their significance for Russia. The results obtained can be useful to federal authorities responsible for implementing regional policies and setting guidelines for the country's spatial development.