The impact of local armed conflicts on the economic performance of countries in 1990-2019

Abstract

Despite the studies of the impact of wars on the local economies of countries and empires, the armed conflicts of the 20th century have their own specifics, different objectives and intensity, which affects not only the economic performance of enterprises and the country as a whole, but also the migration of population and investment attractiveness of the country. Studies based on armed conflicts in Latin America, civil wars in African countries as well as Iraq and Syria differ significantly from the effects of modern armed conflicts on micro- and macroeconomic levels. In the process of unfolding an armed local conflict, the investment attractiveness of the country gradually drops from A+ (for developed countries) and B (for developing countries) to CCC-, warning investors to invest in the declining economy of the country. The aim of the paper is to consider armed conflicts in the period from 1990 to 2019, including armed clashes, civil and international wars; and their impact on the economic performance of the country, both at the beginning of the conflict itself and in its middle.