Consistency Of The Stock Market In Anticipating Economic Cycles

Author:

Franz Laurence W.

Abstract

<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt; mso-pagination: none;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-themecolor: text1;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">This paper examines how consistent the stock market, as measured by the S&amp;P 500 Index, has been in anticipating the effect economic contractions and expansions have on dividends/earnings.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>In 22 of 26 instances, the S&amp;P 500 reached a peak and trough prior to the beginning and ending of 13 economic contractions during the period 1929-2009.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>Changes in dividends/earnings are directly related to economic activity as measured by changes in real GDP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>An economic recession or expansion lowers or raises the intrinsic value of the expected dividend/earnings stream.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>Actual stock prices, as measured by the S&amp;P 500, change in the same direction as the change in intrinsic value with the historical evidence showing the high degree of consistency the stock market has in anticipating economic contractions and expansions.</span></span></p>

Publisher

Clute Institute

Subject

General Medicine

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