Use of NHS PREDICT Tool and Prognostic Factors for Survival in Patients with Breast Cancer

Abstract

Aim: The PREDICT tool is used to estimate survival in breast cancer patients according to the types of treatment given. This study aimed to assess the accuracy of the PREDICT tool and identify the prognostic factors for survival in patients with breast cancer. Material and Methods: A retrospective study was performed based on data collected from the Hospital Sultanah Nur Zahirah, Terengganu, Malaysia. All female patients diagnosed with stage I to IV breast cancer were identified from the year 2011 to 2017. Results: Based on data from 355 eligible patients, the predicted and observed 5-year overall survival rates were 75.8% and 75.2%, respectively. The model performed fairly well, with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.747 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.69-0.81) in the predicted 5-year overall survival. Among the 585 patients diagnosed with stage I to IV breast cancer, stage at the presentation (stage III hazard ratio (HR): 5.80, 95% CI: 1.69-19.94, p=0.005, stage IV HR: 10.61, 95% CI: 3.09-36.49, p<0.001), without surgical treatment (HR: 2.29, 95% CI: 1.73-3.00, p<0.001), without radiotherapy (HR: 1.92, 95% CI: 1.41-2.62, p<0.001), and without neoadjuvant chemotherapy (HR: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.47-0.86, p=0.003) were associated with death in breast cancer patients. Conclusion: The PREDICT tool accurately estimated the 5-year overall survival in the study center. It might serve as a useful prognostication tool during consultation. Late stages of the disease, patients without surgical treatment, and patients without radiotherapy were associated with a higher risk of death in breast cancer.