A Theoretical Approach to the Spaces of the New Future: Planning under the Uncertainty Principle

Abstract

Over the past few decades, the world has become an increasingly dangerous and complex place, and thus, expectations from spatial planning have changed. The study defines the concept of uncertainty as an important problem area of spatial planning. Based on lack of native studies on this subject, it is aimed to reveal how the uncertainties in spatial planning process are handled in international literature. It consists of two basic steps. In the first step, a three-stage model, "Uncertainty Components of Spatial Planning" is proposed. These stages involve (i) the conceptualization, (ii) the classification and (iii) the evaluation of uncertainty. In the second step, a triangular framework was formed for the conceptualization stage of this model having components of (1) identification and modelling, (2) theories and processes, (3) legal regulations. The theoretical handling suggested that the concept of uncertainty is synonymously used with the concepts of vagueness and ambiguity in everyday life despite their differences. It is also found that uncertainty is the subject of many international studies having a common point of presenting either a model or a method to evaluate uncertainty. These studies were categorized in three groups in handling uncertainty; (1) in multidisciplinary context within a general framework, (2) in the field of planning under two subcategories (2a and 2b), and (3) in the field of environment. The studies carried out in the second category allowed for regular conceptual patterns in themselves, and they were shallower and more inward-oriented than those studies in the 1st and 3rd groups, and there is an apparent interaction between the 1st and the 3rd groups. In the model proposed, the focus was only on (i) the conceptualization. However, as the origin, definition and basis of the concept of uncertainty were revealed, it might provide an important initiation for future studies. The study is original in introducing the concept of uncertainty to native literature by elaborating on how it is handled in international studies. Proposals were offered on how to place this concept on a theoretical basis before establishing an evaluation framework for uncertainties within the spatial planning process in Türkiye.