Integration of Statistical Models and Computer Simulation in Environmental Accidents: A Study on Leakage of Red Mud in the Pará River, Amazon, Brazil

Abstract

The introduction of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) from industrial activities in water bodies, highlights the vulnerability of the environment and the need for actions focused on the implementation of mechanisms that help in the control and remediation of these impacts. The objective of the study was based on the integration of instrumental analytical methods, multivariate statistics, and computer simulation models, with the proposal of implementing realistic scenarios of the red mud plume behavior in the Pará River. The selected location was the municipality of Barcarena-PA, where is located an important alumina/aluminum industrial center. With the aid of the inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometer (ICP OES), the chemical elements Al, B, Cr, Fe, Mn, P, Ti, and Zn were quantified and the principal component analysis (PCA) allowed to select Al, B, Fe, P, and Zn as the most relevant with 98.68% of the accumulated variance. Some scenarios were proposed by the simulated hydrodynamic model, which evidenced that the Trambioca community would be the most affected in the first 13 h after the effluent overflowed, and the other locations in domino effect. The main scientific gain of the proposal is the possibility of the predictive scenarios to help the actions of containment and mitigation of environmental damages by public control agencies, institutions involved, and other competent bodies.