Financial system and economic development: a study for emerging countries through a system of simultaneous equations

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this paper was to analyze the bidirectional relationship between financial development and economic growth for a dataset of Latin American and Asian developing countries between 2001 and 2019. Method: This research employed an empirical approach to analyze the statistical relationship between financial development and economic growth, by presenting an estimation of a system of simultaneous equations for a panel of Asian and Latin American countries using 3SLS. Main Results: The results presented in this research provided evidence that financial development does not appear to have a significant impact on economic growth, although growth appears to have a significant and positive influence on financial development. Moreover, the results also suggested that regulatory quality and domestic credit directed to the private sector have a positive effect on economic growth, while urbanization and education showed a negative influence on growth. The estimated model also indicated that urbanization has a positive influence on financial development while foreign direct investment presented a negative effect on the development of the financial sector. Relevance / Originality: Most of the research agenda on the topic of finance and growth has focused on identifying correlation or causality between these variables, with little attention given to the simultaneous relationship between them.  This is still a clear gap in economic literature. Following this premise, the objective of this paper was to analyze the bidirectional relationship between financial development and growth by estimating a system of simultaneous equations using the Zellner and Theil’s (1962) 3SLS methodology. In this sense, the main contribution will be given empirically, based on data and analysis from emerging countries in Latin America and Asia. The fact that financial development has an influence on growth and growth plays a role on the development of the financial sector indicates a simultaneous relationship between these variables. Another relevant contribution is to update the debate on financial systems and economic development for emerging countries, highlighting institutional aspects and financial cycles. Theoretical / Methodological Contributions: The main contribution of this study is in the empirical strategy, whose results dialogue with part of the literature on the financial system and development presented along the text. That is, this research explored the statistical relationship between economic development and financial development for a sample composed by twenty-two Asian and Latin American emerging countries, using a simultaneous equations model.