Understanding How Parasites from Farmed Fish May Influence Wild Fish Declines Using Epidemiological Modelling

Abstract

Beside various fields of its applications, in this study epidemiological modelling was used to understand how parasites from farmed fish may cause wild fish declines. Two separate strategic models were constructed addressing the transmission of micro-parasites and macro-parasites between farmed and wild fish: A SIR (Susceptible-Infective-Removed) model for micro-parasite infections and a compartmental density-dependent model for macro-parasite infestations. The results indicated that parasites originated in wild fish populations, after infecting farmed fish can cause epizootics. Subsequently, these parasites can be transmitted from farmed to wild fish and might have negative impact on the dynamics of wild fish populations. Sensitivity analysis of the basic model parameters in both models showed that model parameters, which are influenced by abiotic factors and allow passive manipulation, such as pathogen specific transmission rate (β), pathogen specific transmission rate between infected farmed and susceptible wild fish (δ), the rate of production of infective stages by an adult parasite (λ) and transmission rate between host and parasite infective stages (β) are more sensitive compared to model parameters which encompass chemical control and fallowing. This emphasizes the importance of the preventive medicine rather than intervention procedures in aquaculture aiming at eradicating epizootics caused by parasites and protecting wild fish stocks.