1. Jon X. Eguia is a Professor of Economics at Michigan State University in East Lansing, Michigan, USA.I thank A. Tybl, A. Earle, and especially Christian Cox for diligent research assistance, and John Curiel for extensive discussions and valuable ideas. I am also grateful to C. Ahlin, S. Ansolabehere, J. Chen, M. Duchin, J. Katz, G. King, A. Miller, C. Smidt, N. Stephanopoulos, three anonymous reviewers, participants at the 2019 PECA conference in Chicago, the Big 10 Alliance's SPARK conference in College...