Modeling the impacts of climate change and cochineal (Dactylopius coccus Costa) invasion on the future distribution of cactus pear (Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Mill.) in Northern Ethiopia

Abstract

This study investigated that the effects of cochineal invasion and climate change on cactuspear distribution. Rainfall and temperature were projected to near, mid, and end-century withemission scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5) using R-programing language. Average temperature willbe increased by 1.7, 2.3, and 2.6°C in RCP 4.5 and 2, 2.8, and 4°C in RCP 8.5 at 2010-2039,2040-2069, and 2070-2099, respectively, and there will be temporal and spatial rainfallvariation. The cactus pear distribution will be reduced by 13, 0.51, and 27% during mid-centuryof RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5, and RCP8.5 of end-century, consistently. But, it will be increased by0.8% at the end-century of RCP4.5. The impact of climate change in future cactus peardistribution is insignificant. In addition, the probability of cochineal invasion will be increased byabout 72, 74, 62, and 94% by mid and end-century of RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. This hasa significant impact on future cactus pear distribution. The combined effect of climate changeand cochineal invasion will affect 72, 78, 63, and 85% of cactus pear distribution by mid andend-century of RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. It has a significant impact on future cactus peardistribution. Therefore, the study recommends well-designed management strategies to ensurecactus pear survival.